How direct flights between China and India could benefit Beijing more

India-China ties have been on an upward swing ever since both the Asian giants reached a significant agreement for disengagement in the Depsang and Demchok border areas, along the Line of Actual Control, in October.

Taking this forward, India’s External Affairs Minister
S Jaishankar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil on Monday (November 18) during which resumption of direct flights, the Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra, media exchanges and data-sharing on trans-border rivers were all discussed. This meeting, notably, is the first since the
disengagement process began at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in late October.

Interestingly, this isn’t the first time that the resumption of direct flights has been discussed by both sides, with Beijing pushing for better connectivity as early as this June.

We take a closer look at why flights between India and China had been cancelled in the first place and what would be the benefit of resuming them again.

India-China direct flights cancelled

In December 2019, India and China were connected through 539 direct passenger flights. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows that Chinese carriers scheduled 371 of those flights, more than double the 168 by India’s airlines.

However, when the COVID-19 pandemic struck, barring a few repatriation flights, direct air travel between the two nations was cancelled.

This further escalated in June 2020 when Indian and Chinese troops clashed at
Galwan, which resulted in the loss of 20 Indian Army soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers. As a means to punish China, the Narendra Modi government announced that flights between India and China would be cancelled. It also banned social media apps, including TikTok.

When India resumed regular international flights in March 2022, it did not resume commercial flight services to China.

This cessation of flights has forced travellers to rely on connecting flights through third countries, such as Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Singapore. This not only adds to the cost of flying but also the duration.

For instance, in 2019, a round-trip economy class ticket between New Delhi and Beijing typically ranged between $350 to $550 and took around six hours. Currently, the shortest flight duration between New Delhi and Beijing is 10.5 hours, with fares around $1,280. The cheapest available flights take roughly 12 hours and cost $650.

China’s push to resume direct flights

Since pandemic restrictions were lifted, Beijing has been pushing for New Delhi to resume direct flights between the two countries.

In 2023, China’s government and airlines broached the topic with India’s civil aviation authorities, reported Reuters. However, at the time, a senior Indian official was quoted as saying, “Unless there is peace and tranquillity on the border, the rest of the relationship cannot move forward.”

But since then, discussions have gained momentum; on September 12, India’s Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu met with Song Zhiyong, Administrator of the Civil Aviation Administration of China during which “positive indications” emerged that direct flights would resume soon.

Naidu even wrote on social media platform X that the two sides had discussed “further strengthening civil aviation cooperation between the two countries, especially promoting the early resumption of scheduled passenger flights”.

On Monday (November 18), the topic of direct flights was once again discussed when S Jaishankar met with China’s Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

Significance of China’s push for direct flights

Experts note that restarting flights between the two countries would help both sides. Subhash Goyal, chairman of the aviation and tourism committee at the Indian Chamber of Commerce was quoted as telling South China Morning Post, “People are going to China via third countries. They fly via Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar and Hong Kong. It is better that Indian and Chinese airlines restart flights [as soon as possible] rather than giving business to third countries’ airlines.”

However, experts point out that the resumption of direct flights is likely to benefit Beijing more, given its recovery in air travel post-COVID has been relatively slow. In August, China’s leading state-owned airlines posted losses in the first half of the year.

Experts in China note that overseas travel is lagging behind market expectations due to a
faltering economy and a turn toward domestic
travel.

Travel operators in China are weeping over their huge losses, with some even saying that the ‘peak seasons’ have been the worst so far. They hope that with the resumption of direct flights to India, the situation may improve.

China is also facing the prospects of an escalating
trade war with the United States after Donald Trump takes charge as the US president and hence, would be hoping for a reset in China’s economic ties with India. Keeping that in mind, resuming flights between the two countries would help.

Mark D Martin, CEO of aviation consultancy Martin Consulting, told South China Morning Post, “I think it is high time that full-blown flights are resumed and not just to Beijing but also to Chinese provinces. There is so much lost trade between the two countries.

“Our economies are intermeshed with each other. We are part of Brics [the bloc consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] and we are also emerging markets,” he said, noting that traders and businessmen as well as holidaymakers were likely to be keen to fly.

With inputs from agencies