Chinese-Australian voters in key seats reveal what issues matter to them, as federal election looms

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With a looming federal election, it’s no surprise the major parties are paying close attention to the Chinese-Australian vote.

At the last election, the swing against the Liberals in electorates with a high concentration of Chinese Australians was almost twice that of other seats.

As polling day approaches, there’s one part of the nation attracting particular attention.

For the first time this year, the Menzies electorate in Victoria has the most Chinese-Australian voters, followed by the neighbouring seat of Chisholm, after electoral boundaries were redrawn.

The redistribution shifted most of the suburb of Box Hill, which has a high Chinese-Australian population, from Chisholm into Menzies.

“There is this idea that whatever happens in outer eastern Melbourne dictates what happens to the whole country,” said Jill Sheppard, a political scientist from the Australian National University.

Dr Sheppard said the redistribution made both seats more marginal and puts more of “a national spotlight” on the electorates.

In light of the changes, the ABC visited Menzies and Chisholm to find out what issues Chinese-Australian voters care about.

Cost of living key issue

Chinese-Australian Linda Bekesi — who has lived in Box Hill South for five years — was in the Chisholm electorate but thanks to the redistribution is now a first-time voter in Menzies.

Despite being in a new electorate, the issues Mrs Bekesi cares about haven’t changed.

The mother-of-two cited the cost of living, the cost and quality of childcare, and security — including protection of personal data — as things that matter to her the most.

Instead of short-term fixes, Mrs Bekesi wants the government to come up with a long-term plan to address the cost-of-living crisis.

“We’ve been having this cost-of-living crisis for some time now, so it’s not really getting resolved in my view,” she said.

Mrs Beksei, who spoke with the ABC for this story before Four Corners revealed failures and systemic issues in Australia’s childcare sector, said she was not happy with the quality of the care her child had received.

She’s pulled her child out of one centre because it “wasn’t a good fit” and wants childcare practices across the board to be reviewed.

“So that they’re actually meeting the needs of our children … not just working for the bottom profit line,” she explained.

Voters ‘care deeply’ about Australia-China relations

In more than 15 interviews the ABC did with voters in Menzies and Chisholm, the cost of living, housing affordability and community safety were raised as key issues.

While Chinese Australians were also concerned about education, health and aged care, Sino-Australia relations was also a significant issue for voters, said Luxin Liu, a Chinese-Australian community political commentator.

“Many first-generation migrants also care deeply about Australia’s relationship with China,” Dr Liu said.

Such is the case for Rui Gu, who migrated to Australia from China 30 years ago and lives in Chisholm.

“For a lot of Chinese Australians, Australia is our second home, but China was our motherland, so we’d like to see Australia and China develop a friendship,” said Mr Gu.

Mr Gu said if the bilateral relationship was good, it benefited Chinese Australians who work in business, education, tourism and trade sectors here.

“There’s an old Chinese saying — being harmonious but maintaining differences,” he said.

“Politics shouldn’t get in the way of trade. We shouldn’t shut the doors to business just because of political differences.”

Dr Liu said both major parties were being more careful this time around with messaging to Chinese-Australian voters after the 2022 federal election results.

In the last election, in the top 15 seats with Chinese-Australian voters, the swing on a two-party-preferred basis was 6.6 per cent toward Labor, compared to 3.7 per cent in other seats, Liberal Party analysis found.

“I think it is really important to remember just how willing Chinese-Australian voters are to punish candidates in governments that they don’t feel are talking to them,” Dr Sheppard said.

“What’s a particular challenge with Chinese-Australian voters is that they’re not willing necessarily to take the parties on face value.”

Redistribution could impact results

It’s a point not lost on Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, who both visited Box Hill during Lunar New Year celebration events at the beginning of the year.

Shaking hands and smiling for local Chinese media, both leaders promised more financial support to the community’s cultural events.

Liberal MP Keith Wolahan won the seat of Menzies with a 0.7 per cent margin at the 2022 election, but because of the redistribution Menzies is now a notional Labor seat, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green.

One in four voters in Menzies are new to the electorate, Mr Wolahan said.

“The challenge for incumbents like me is that, although we like to think we’ve worked hard over three years, for a quarter of the electorate, they don’t know you,” he said.

Gabriel Ng is the Labor candidate for Menzies, and it’s his first tilt at politics.

“I think with any first-time candidate, there are some nerves, but I’m being well supported,” he said.

In Chisholm, the redistribution has improved the Liberals’ chance of defeating Labor, predicted Antony Green.

But Labor incumbent Carina Garland isn’t paying too much attention to pre-election number crunching.

“If the analysts were all correct last time, I wouldn’t be sitting here talking to you as the member for Chisholm, yet here we are,” Ms Garland said.

Liberals’ candidate for Chisholm, Katie Allen, said there has been “a change in mood” in Chisholm.

“The question is just how much,” Dr Allen said.

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