In US TikTok Ban, Meta and Google will emerge as true winners as they divvy up ad revenue

A new analysis from eMarketer reveals that Meta and Google are expected to be the biggest financial winners if TikTok is banned in the US The two tech giants, which already dominate the US advertising space, could gain a substantial share of the ad revenue currently spent on TikTok.

TikTok’s rapid rise, alongside the growth of Amazon, has presented a real challenge to Meta and Google, who have long controlled more than half of the US advertising market. If TikTok is banned, more than half of the advertising dollars spent on the platform in the US would shift to Meta and Google properties. eMarketer predicts Instagram and Facebook would scoop up 22.8 per cent and 17.1 per cent of TikTok’s ad spend, respectively, while Google’s YouTube would capture around 10.7 per cent.

Other platforms could see a boost too

It’s not just Meta and Google that stand to benefit from the reallocated ad dollars. Other social media platforms like Snapchat, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Reddit, and X could collectively grab 18.3 per cent of the ad spend once TikTok is out of the picture. Many of these platforms have already started adapting by incorporating TikTok-style short video features to attract advertisers.

Connected TV companies and other digital media companies involved in social, search, and retail advertising are also likely to take a share, with eMarketer estimating they could collect about 30 per cent of the redirected ad dollars.

Both Meta and Google have made significant investments in short-form video products like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, which positions them well to capture the TikTok ad revenue. Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, mentioned last year that Reels accounts for over 50 per cent of the time users spend on Instagram, while Google revealed that over 2 billion monthly logged-in users watch YouTube Shorts.

What’s next for TikTok?

It’s looking increasingly likely that a TikTok ban will happen soon. The US Supreme Court’s recent arguments have led observers to expect the law to uphold the ban. Meanwhile, China has made it clear that it won’t allow ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US company as a workaround. However, a recent Bloomberg report suggests that Chinese officials might consider a sale to Elon Musk, which could have a significant impact on the ad market, with Musk’s X possibly benefiting from the shift in revenue.

While the outcome is still uncertain, it’s clear that Meta and Google are set to reap the rewards if the ban goes ahead.