Canada’s Trudeau trouble has been replaced by Trump torment. It’s security vs sovereignty

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation from both the premiership and the leadership of his party comes as no surprise. Aware of his plummeting popularity ratings, he faced mounting pressure. In the latest Nanos poll, the Liberals trail the Conservatives 47 percent to 21 percent. Party members were increasingly worried about the possibility of being wiped out in the next election if Trudeau continued as one of the most unpopular leaders in Canada’s recent history.

Trudeau acknowledged that “internal battles” meant that he “cannot be the best option” for the next election, scheduled for late 2025. He offered to remain as prime minister until a new Liberal Party leader is chosen, originally expected by the end of January but now postponed to March. Even with a new leader, it will be impossible for the Liberals to retain power after nearly a decade in government.

Also read: Indians will never forgive Trudeau. Or forget

Caught between Trudeau and Trump

Trudeau’s unceremonious exit was a foregone conclusion by mid-December, when Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned over serious disagreements with him. This came despite Trudeau announcing populist measures, including a two-month GST/HST exemption on essentials like groceries, snacks, and children’s clothing. He also introduced a new ‘Working Canadians Rebate,’ providing an additional $250 to those earning up to $150,000 annually, benefitting about 18.7 million citizens. However, Canada’s financial profligacy runs much deeper. Besides these measures, the government incurs substantial expenses under the Resettlement Assistance Program (RAP), providing monthly allowances to unemployed individuals and new immigrants, as well as one-time household setup costs of about 5,000 Canadian dollars.

Incidentally, Freeland had initially lauded these freebies, saying, “With new tax relief on groceries and seasonal expenses and a rebate for working Canadians, we are reducing costs when they are highest for Canadians. This is about helping you celebrate with family and friends and start 2025 with a little extra money in your bank account.” Strangely though, she later quit citing disagreement on these “costly political gimmicks,” criticising their burden on the exchequer. Her departure coincided with escalating tensions with Trump, who threatened a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods unless the country addressed what he called the “free flow of migrants and drugs” across its border—even though it is generally believed that much of this happens along the US-Mexico border.

While most politicians and citizens will surely dismiss Trump’s threats as hyperbole, his social media post is intriguing, especially in the larger geopolitical context. “Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!” Trump’s reference to Russia and China underscore Canada’s dilemma: balancing security with sovereignty.

Trump’s desire to “buy” Greenland and control the Suez Canal may sound outlandish and bizarre, but seen in the context of China’s expanding influence, its pursuit of critical minerals, and attempts to redraw rules of engagement in the emerging world order, his strategies appear well-calibrated. American control over the Suez Canal will seriously curtail China’s access to South American markets. Coupled with denial of technology, higher tariffs, and restriction on American companies outsourcing manufacturing services to China, Trump could fuel Trade War 2.0. Canada may need to reconsider Trump’s statements and take him a bit more seriously.

Also read: The rise and fall of Justin Trudeau—A look at his tenure as Canada’s prime minister

Opportunity for India-Canada ties

In these circumstances, Canada’s upcoming electoral process will be keenly watched by India. It presents an opportunity for New Delhi to reset India-Canada relations by allowing unhindered flow of investments and simplifying visa processes to support students and people-to-people ties. A friendlier diplomatic environment will ease the situation and pave the way for a meaningful relationship and the resumption of formal dialogue.

In 2023, Canada imported goods worth $5.58 billion from India, including pharmaceuticals valued at $425.33 million, as well as machinery, iron and steel articles, electronics, and gemstones. These products will spur India’s manufacturing process and add value to Canada’s economic stability. While an immediate reversal of accusations against Indian diplomats in Canada should not be expected, Canadian political parties must distance themselves from radical elements within the Indian diaspora.

Both India and Canada value democracy, individual freedom, religious diversity, sovereignty, and strategic autonomy. Better bilateral relations will add strength to these shared principles.

The author is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)