China’s sixth-gen fighters trigger turbulence: From Lockheed Martin stocks to India’s growing defence gap

The world of air combat is changing rapidly as Lockheed Martin’s F-35, a symbol of advanced aviation, faces growing competition from China’s strides in combat aircraft development. While the F-35 is still considered one of the most advanced fighter jets, its dominance is under scrutiny due to the emergence of China’s sixth-generation fighter jets.

A Global Times article described this as a challenge affecting Lockheed Martin’s stock, with analysts such as Deutsche Bank raising concerns about the F-35’s future demand. A recent Deutsche Bank said there was a technological gap between China’s cutting-edge jets and the F-35, suggesting it could significantly impact the fighter jet’s market appeal as nations invest in newer platforms. The shifting global military scenario raises questions about the US’s ability to maintain air superiority, particularly as China accelerates its military modernisation.

Deutsche Bank also downgraded Lockheed Martin’s stock recently from Buy to Hold, signalling growing concerns in the defence sector about the F-35’s future market potential.

Analysts from the bank highlighted that the widening technological gap between China’s sixth-generation fighter jets and the F-35 could significantly impact demand for the aircraft, especially as nations turn to newer, more advanced systems.

F-35 has been a major revenue driver and a key part of its defence portfolio of Lockheed Martin. The company now faces pressure to adapt as global powers invest in the next generation of air combat technology.

China’s rumoured sixth-generation fighter jets

In December 2024, Chinese social media was abuzz with videos reportedly showing test flights of what could be China’s sixth-generation fighter jets. Although the Chinese government has not officially confirmed these claims, the videos have sparked widespread speculation about the potential technological advancements of these aircraft.

There are both calculations and speculation that these new jets might be more manoeuverable and stealthier than current fifth-generation models raising concerns about the US and its allies losing their technological edge.

Cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence for real-time tactical decision-making, hypersonic speeds and advanced stealth capabilities could feature in these sixth-generation fighters from China, many reports reveal. These enhancements could make them significantly more lethal and agile compared to previous generations including the F-35 in terms of manoeuverability and combat effectiveness.

US response and its struggles

The US has responded to China’s advancements in sixth-generation fighter jets with a mix of caution and urgency. At the core of its strategy to maintain air superiority is the Pentagon’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme aimed at developing the next generation of American fighter jets. However, progress has been slower than anticipated.

The Wall Street Journal said certain aspects of the NGAD programme have been paused for review raising concerns about delays.

This comes as China appears to be making rapid strides in its sixth-generation fighter development putting the US in a challenging position. Budgetary constraints and political delays have further complicated the situation slowing the timely deployment of new technologies. While the F-35 remains the backbone of the US fighter fleet, its long-term viability is increasingly uncertain.

As per the Wall Street Journal, if China continues to outpace the US in air combat technology, it could potentially gain a significant upper hand—an outcome with serious implications for US defence strategy and the security of its allies worldwide.

India’s strategic response

India faces significant security concerns along its northern and western borders making the rise of China’s advanced air combat capabilities a pressing issue. While India has prioritised strengthening its defence infrastructure through fighter jets such as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and the Tejas light combat aircraft, its reliance on foreign military suppliers has created a technological gap compared to China.

India is heavily investing in its aircraft development, but delays in the AMCA programme and budget limitations make it unlikely to match China’s new fighter jets in the short term.

The Indian Air Force is undergoing a large-scale modernisation effort, but progress has been slowed by budget constraints and delays in developing indigenous platforms. As China speeds up its sixth-generation fighter programme, India’s need to reduce its dependence on foreign technology and advance domestic defence capabilities becomes even more urgent.

A Times of India report quoted Air Chief Marshal AP Singh as recently saying at the annual Subroto Mukherjee seminar in New Delhi that India’s security could be at risk if it cannot keep pace with China’s growing air combat power.

New reality for Lockheed Martin

With the rising threat of China’s advanced sixth-generation fighter jets, Lockheed Martin is facing pressure to rethink its strategy. While the company has seen great success with its F-35 programme, concerns about its long-term market demand are pushing the defence giant to explore new growth opportunities.

In recent years, Lockheed Martin has started diversifying its portfolio focussing on advanced unmanned systems and next-generation combat drones alongside traditional fighter jets. According to Defence News, the company is also exploring innovations in hypersonic weapons and AI-driven defence technologies to stay competitive. As China pushes air combat technology boundaries, Lockheed Martin’s ability to adapt will shape its future in the global defence industry.

The fast-changing technology in air combat, led by China’s progress with sixth-generation fighter jets, is reshaping global military power. This shift is not just affecting the US and China; it is also pushing countries like India to speed up their defence modernisation efforts. Air superiority, once dominated by the US, may now be up for challenge in the years ahead.