As a rising economic power, and possibly a potential superpower by the mid-2040s, if all goes well, India will learn that superpowerdom means operating largely in the region of moral ambiguity—even an ethical vacuum. At the end of the journey to reach superpower status, India will realise that retaining power can become an end in itself. And not seeking power is not an option, especially if there are two existing superpowers trying to restrict your choices.

All rising powers must thus develop the ability to leverage power in multiple ways. Three points are worth noting.

First, one must learn to do what they (the big powers) do, not what they say. If you can, do what they do even better. Powerful states will use legitimate-sounding agendas—saving democracy, human rights, freedom of religion, climate change, et al—to further their own national interests. This is what the US and (to a lesser extent) the European Union do very successfully. This is what China has done.

Second, never ditch your own global or local friends, even if they may be found wanting on some fronts. The US has still not let go of two people who enabled the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, Tahawwur Rana and David Headley. There is talk of the US agreeing to extradite Rana, but his utility to the investigation may actually be irrelevant now. Likewise, we must throw the Bangladesh request for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina into the waste basket, even if we later learn that she was a ghoul in human form.

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Third, never let your own winners, or successful icons, go down in flames just because you are being guilt-tripped about their conduct. When the chips are down, it is your business powerhouses that will stand by the country. Who will take on the Amazons and Metas of the world if not an Ambani or some future Indian social media tycoon? More immediately, neutering the US’ targeting of Gautam Adani and his businesses must be seen as a national priority, even though we may investigate his businesses locally and take what action we need to. It’s like US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt famously said about Latin American dictator Anastasio Somoza, “He may be an SOB, but he’s our SOB”. Adani may have been colouring outside the lines while growing his many businesses, but he is our guy, our only entry into the global world of infrastructure building. He is part of our potential Deep State, and useful to our long-term national interests. Those who say one should not equate Adani with national interests are wrong. Gautam Adani is an icon of a self-made success like the Ambanis, Tatas or Birlas, and India should never be a party to bringing down its own icons.

Consider how the US treats its own business icons. In 2008, just before the global financial crisis broke out, US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson sat down with some hedge fund managers and broadly indicated to them that the government may intervene to prevent two mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from going bankrupt due to the sub-prime meltdown. The US Securities and Exchange choose not to bring Paulson down or even investigate his role in possible insider trading. It also treated Warren Buffett’s and Steve Jobs’ own alleged questionable deals with kid gloves. Two others, Michael Dell and AIG, whose involvement in fraud was beyond doubt, got away by paying settlements.

On the other hand, the SEC threw two others with less iconic value to Uncle Sam—Rajat Gupta and Raj Rajaratnam—in jail for alleged insider trading. And this when Gupta made no money at all for himself from foolishly talking about what transpired at a Goldman Sachs board meeting with Rajaratnam.

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How the US does it

This is exactly how we should be dealing with an Adani, by investigating him locally and penalising him financially if something wrong is found. Uncle Sam has no claims over him. Even if the US thinks so, we must tell them to take a hike—if not in so many words.

One has to be naive to believe that the SEC allegations of wire fraud and bribery by Adani (in India, not the US) have nothing to do with the operations of the US Deep State, especially since he is perceived to be close to the Narendra Modi government.

Consider four sets of actions taken by the US over the last two years, some led by private actors.

In January 2023, Hindenburg, a stock market short-seller, targeted Adani by putting out a report claiming he (Gautam Adani) was pulling the largest corporate con in history. An insightful piece by Aswath Damodaran, a widely acclaimed stock valuation analyst, spotted no effort by Adani to con anybody.

But as Adani proved adept in managing the fallout from the Hindenburg report and his group’s valuations started improving to previous levels, the US hit out again with the SEC allegations of a victimless crime where Adani’s actions impacted no US investors. And the bribery charges in India are just that: mere allegations.

One must read the above two US actions against Adani in the context of two other actions that seem unrelated to him. In September 2024, a US court issued a summons to India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in a case involving the alleged attempt to murder Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun using hired assassins. A month later, the Canadians officially named Home Minister Amit Shah in the case involving the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Now which friendly country would allow a minor local court to target a partner country’s top security official and Home Minister so that they can never travel to the US?

And can it be a mere coincidence that the three people perceived to be closest to the Prime Minister were all targeted around the same time? Anyone who does not see these events as connected is surely missing something.

There’s a reason why the Joe Biden administration, despite wanting closer defence ties with India, is also allowing this—Uncle Sam sees a hobbled or weak Indian government as being in its own best interests.

In seeking to delay India’s rise, both the US and China share similar aims. Their own strategic interests are best served if India is weak and unable to get its act together, and its growth story slows down. The US knows it made a mistake by facilitating China’s rise over the last four decades. It does not want to repeat the mistake with India. As for China, it knows that India has the size and potential to deny it any pre-eminence even in Asia. Chinese philosophy demands that there should not be two tigers on the same hill, and India is a rising tiger in Asia.

But India isn’t being singled out by the US. When it comes to protecting its interests, the US can throw its own allies under the bus. In the Ukraine war, the US forced Germany and Nato allies to abandon a crucial element in their own business competitiveness—cheap energy—in order to bring Russia down. That it has failed—Vladimir Putin is slowly gaining an edge in the war—does not matter. It forced Australia to abandon a submarine deal with France in order to make it an Anglo-American enterprise. A few days ago, Biden scrapped a deal by close ally Japan to buy US Steel. Even allies don’t matter to a superpower if its own interests are at stake.

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An Indian Deep State

America will do many terrible things to ensure its own medium-term supremacy. Regime change operations, encouraging fissures within states, and targeting enemies for assassinations abroad are part of the repertoire.

As India rises, it must seek to develop its own Deep State, and this means aiding and abetting strong businesses to develop deep ties to countries abroad. It is not only Adani, but Ambani, Tata, Birla, Infosys, TCS and Wipro that can be potential allies of a future Indian Deep State. Let’s not forget, even though America may be seeking to reduce the power of its own tech and social media giants—Google, Meta, Microsoft, X and Apple—in its own backyard, it will use them to obtain information on all its users abroad covertly. All these tech companies—except possibly Apple—probably cooperate with US intelligence services when required.

The Deep State is not a static concept comprising only intelligence agencies, academia, the bureaucracy and private business. It also includes state and civil society actors. A big tell-tale sign of a Deep State ally would be an organisation set up to work only abroad, and never at home. The US Council for International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) is part of the Deep State, and it is directly funded by the US taxpayer. Organisations like the OCCRP (Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project), which receives US government funding but cannot investigate any such crimes within the US, can also play Deep State-aligned roles. While a lot of the activities of OCCRP seem legitimate, it can be used to target specific countries or entities that the US wants to bring to heel, as a Mediapart report has shown.

India must start developing its own Deep State as its power grows, and big businesses with a global footprint and the Indian diaspora can be allies of this Deep State.

Naivete lies in treating our own Deep State actors as enemies, which is what Rahul Gandhi seems to be trying to do. His own state governments and allies do not like what he is doing in the Adani case. The Indian government must make no such mistake.

But much beyond Adani and business, we have to develop our own defence-industrial complex, our own influential academia, our own tech platforms, and our own global rankings on issues like country credit ratings and pluralism, among other things. We have a long way to go.

R Jagannathan is editorial director at Swarajya magazine. Views are personal.

(Edited by Theres Sudeep)