Trump’s threat to retake Panama Canal alienates an ally
It’s usually better to watch what President-elect Donald Trump does than to be overly worried about what he says.
Still, his recent salvo on retaking the Panama Canal is worrisome geopolitically. It has already caused widespread outrage in Latin America. Yes, there are legitimate national security and economic concerns tied to the canal that should be addressed, but why alienate a U.S. partner with little clear payoff?
There are historical reasons, including international treaties and long-standing alliances — not to mention Panama’s national sovereignty — that make this impossible legally. If it’s a negotiating strategy, it’s a poor one.
Speaking to a crowd of supporters in Arizona before Christmas, and in later social media posts, Trump threatened to retake the Panama Canal if the U.S. does not get better transit fees. He also wrongly suggested that Chinese agents are running the canal. Worry about Chinese influence is real, but there is no evidence that China is in charge of Panama’s most important asset.
Crossing the Panama Canal has an economic cost and the U.S. is the No. 1 user, but for more than a century the canal has saved time and money for the world’s supply chain. According to the Panama Canal Authority, about 75% of the cargo passing through the waterway is either destined or originates in the U.S. A neutrality agreement forbids preferential treatment for any particular country.
Transit fees through the waterway vary. Vessel size and economic demands are at play, but climate change conditions are forcing Panama to rethink its water sources, and that adds to costs of operation. An ongoing drought has reduced the levels of the Gatún Lake, the canal’s main water source, and the government wants to build a new reservoir.
There are other reasons not to alienate Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, who rejected Trump’s statement. Mulino should be a close ally of a future Trump administration in one of Latin America’s few stable democracies. Panama has an important role in stopping the flow of migrants at the dangerous Darién Gap.
Some analysts believe that security concerns with the canal are valid since a Hong Kong-based firm controls two ports at the canal entrances. But this is a far stretch from having Chinese troops operating the canal as Trump suggested.
Built between 1904 and 1914, the Panama Canal stands as one of the greatest engineering achievements of mankind. The U.S. succeeded where others failed. The waterway is also a triumph of President Theodore Roosevelt’s political savvy. Panama would not exist as a nation if it were not for the canal.
We built it, but we don’t own it anymore.
Signed in 1977, the Torrijos-Carter Treaties ensured the transfer of the canal by the turn of the century. President Jimmy Carter signed the treaties at a moment that helped the U.S. build goodwill as the Cold War was waning. Some Republicans were never happy with these agreements, but the deal is long done, and Panama is the natural and rightful owner of the waterway.
Trump should take a cue from Carter and build on goodwill. That will ensure stronger partnerships in the region, something he will need in the next four years.
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