Trump could push Beijing closer to EU

Last week, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi outlined the country’s foreign policy priorities for 2025 at the Symposium on the International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations.

He highlighted rising global uncertainties and instability, forecasting that 2025 will be a challenging year for China, yet one filled with opportunities.

Tensions with US, cooperation with EU

China’s most critical international relationship remains with the United States. Managing this dynamic continues to be Beijing’s foremost priority. With Donald Trump returning to the presidency, China-US relations are expected to face intensified challenges.

Li Cheng, founding director of the Center on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong, noted that China’s rising strength now rivals that of the US. Chinese analysts and commentators predict that a second Trump administration could escalate tensions, with increased competition in areas such as economy, trade, and technology. They also highlight the need for cooperation on global issues like climate change and security.

Striking a balance between competition and cooperation will be the defining challenge in the years ahead. One commentator on Baidu speculated that Trump’s return could lead to immediate tariffs on Chinese goods, followed by targeted increases, and the enactment of a new trade law by 2026. This could redefine the bilateral relationship and intensify economic tensions. In this dynamic, Taiwan will continue to be a contentious issue.

Europe plays a significant, though secondary, role in China’s foreign policy. Diao Li, deputy director of the Center for European Studies at Wuhan University, explained that China-EU relations in 2024 have been shaped by American influence and internal European political changes. Both sides recognise the strategic importance of their ties, though the US containment of China has heightened Europe’s strategic anxiety.

Despite rising European scepticism, Beijing is expected to strengthen its economic ties with the EU and address shared challenges. Chinese discourse emphasises maximising cooperation, as exemplified by ongoing discussions over EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Trump’s return may increase global uncertainties but could also present opportunities for closer communication between China and Europe, with steady trade growth and stabilising relations paving the way for a more prosperous future.

Also read: India is confusing ‘standing strong’ with standing alone in international negotiations

Russia, India & ASEAN

For China, its relationship with Russia has largely been driven by pragmatism. Aligning with Moscow has benefitted Beijing in recent years, and this trend is unlikely to change soon. Wang emphasised that “in the face of shifting international dynamics, China and Russia will continue to maintain high levels of strategic trust, support each other’s development, and work together to preserve global strategic stability.”

Chinese social media discussions reflect growing recognition of China-Russia relations as crucial in resisting external pressures. This interdependence is expected to deepen, with the joint development of the once-disputed Heixiazi Island symbolising an enduring partnership.

China will also maintain its focus on ASEAN and India. It views New Delhi both as a competitor among the newer powers in South Asia and as a key part of the US strategy to counter China. From the Chinese perspective, the October thaw in India-China relations was a response to uncertainty under a Trump administration—the Joe Biden administration was perceived as more predictable.

While Chinese scholars like Zhou Rong, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University, have highlighted positive signals in the relationship, ties with India remain largely shaped by US influence. Much of the Chinese commentary on the thaw frames it as a compromise by Modi amid geopolitical volatility, seen as a setback for the US. Some, on the other hand, view India as having sidestepped a trap set by the US.

In the South China Sea, Chinese experts are somewhat optimistic about the country’s approach and capabilities. Wu Shicun, Chairman of National Institute for South China Sea Studies, identified two key windows for China in 2025: “safeguarding its rights, particularly regarding Ren’ai Reef, where China may act against Philippine warships if provocations continue, and maritime cooperation, exemplified by 2024 agreements between China, Vietnam, and Indonesia on joint development in disputed waters, particularly between China and Indonesia, signaling a positive step for regional cooperation.”

With Chinese President Xi Jinping maintaining a low profile with the Belt and Road Initiative in recent years, it may see a resurgence. Song Wei, a professor at the Beijing University of Foreign Studies, said: “China will continue to promote the Belt and Road cooperation, contribute more public goods to the world, and share more of its development dividends through high-level opening-up.”

China is also expected to play a larger role in ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, navigating its interests. Rong Ying, former vice president at the China Institute of International Studies, predicted that global chaos will persist in 2025, increasing expectations and demands on China. He emphasised that “great changes bring great responsibility, a political commitment China must uphold”.

Also read: Bangladesh, Myanmar pose new security threats for India—domestic politics isn’t helping either

Search for bigger role

Amid global uncertainties, China is likely to seek a more prominent role on the world stage, aiming to strengthen its profile. Its foreign policy will reflect a desire to position itself as a stabiliser and responsible stakeholder, capable of leading and reshaping both regional and global order.

China’s approach will be defined by strategic competition with the US, Japan, and the West; seeking closer cooperation with the EU; engaging India and Australia to align with its interests; and trying to champion emerging economies. Beijing will assert itself as a force for good in conflicts, though the South China Sea and Taiwan will remain key strategic issues. While its core interests will stay consistent, China’s approach may become more assertive, especially as it progresses with the modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army.

Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)