Trump and his tariff threat now have to be Trudeau’s top priority

He may be bluffing, but we can’t take the chance. The federal government must assume that Donald Trump intends to impose a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican exports into the United States, as he announced via social media Monday evening. Mr. Trump is also increasing tariffs on China.

America’s three largest trading partners will inevitably retaliate with equivalent tariffs on U.S. products. We know what could happen next because it has happened before .

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which threw up a high tariff wall around the United States, worsened the Great Depression. The Trump tariffs of 2025 may launch one.

It won’t be easy to negotiate away these tariffs, because Mr. Trump is not yet president, nor are his nominated officials in place. But we can’t just sit around and wait for the President-elect’s executive order, which he promises to sign on Jan. 20, his very first day in office.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his aides and ministers must negotiate a solution that will, at the least, get Mr. Trump to pause the tariff order. Once he is president, those negotiations can continue in search of a more permanent solution.

Canada must not be willing to simply cave to whatever outrageous demands this president-bully may throw out. But we must at least show that we are willing to make a good-faith effort to deal with the incoming administration.

The alternative is unthinkable – for workers in the oil-and-gas industry, in the auto industry, for farmers, for the country.

In his post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump accused Canada and Mexico of permitting illegal migrants and illegal pharmaceuticals – fentanyl, in particular – to enter the United States. He demanded both countries police their border more strictly, “and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

Americans would pay just as high a price – higher costs for petroleum imports from Alberta, higher prices for imported foods, massive disruptions to auto-industry supply chains.

For that reason, we can expect American business leaders to lean heavily on the once-and-future president and his advisers. But we can’t count on them to help us. We have to help ourselves.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday evening urged Mr. Trudeau to convene an immediate first-ministers’ meeting. That meeting is essential.

Bear in mind, not only is the clock already counting down to Inauguration/Tariff Day, but the holiday season is approaching – although, given the nature of this emergency, we should expect everyone involved on our side to work straight through.

As Mr. Ford said, this threat requires a Team Canada response: federal, provincial, municipal, business, labour – you name it.

In that regard, it was encouraging to hear that Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Trump talked Monday night. It would be an understatement to say their relationship isn’t warm, but from this moment on, the Prime Minister has no higher – really, no other – priority that heading off the tariff threat.

Cross-border migration and drug-smuggling are primarily issues at the U.S.-Mexico border, though incoming border czar Tom Homan has been critical of what he sees as a lax approach to immigration and the border by Canada.

So does Mr. Trump want beefed up surveillance and security from Canadian border officials? Tighter immigration controls?

Or is he after something else – such as a serious commitment to increase defence spending? Mr. Trudeau insists Canada is “on a clear path,” as he told NATO parliamentarians Monday, to meeting the NATO-members commitment of devoting 2 per cent of GDP to defence. But that path is anything but clear to most observers.

Some are going to say that Canada must stand up to Mr. Trump’s bullying, refuse to compromise, launch retaliatory tariffs and wait for the Yanks to cave. But the truth is, however much damage Mr. Trump is willing to inflict on the American economy in the name of tariff protection, the harm to Canada would be vastly worse.

There’s no hiding it. For the next four years, this country’s relations with the United States will be difficult on good days and steeped in crisis on bad days. Canadians must expect their political leaders to be ready to step up, even if it means working Christmas Day.