Trump’s climate denial gives China its moment to lead. At COP29, it’ll seize the opportunity

Amid concerns over United States climate policy under Trump, China is strategically positioning itself as a leader in the fight against climate change. The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP29, began on 11 November and will run until 22 November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. This year’s conference unfolds against a complex global backdrop marked by two ongoing major wars and the newly re-elected US president, Donald Trump, whose climate policies have previously been seen as a major obstacle to global climate action.

Chinese internet platforms are abuzz with discussions about the nation’s growing role and potential leadership, while the US under Trump is increasingly portrayed as isolationist and undermining global climate efforts. Chinese news websites and social media platforms feature commentaries with headlines like “China finds a way to save the world” and “COP29 opens, Trump’s victory—now everyone’s eyes are on China”, reflecting the broader narrative of China’s emerging prominence in global climate action. On Weibo alone, there are over 16 million posts about COP29, with widespread praise for China’s decision to appoint Wang Yibo, a popular Chinese celebrity, as the youth representative to the conference—an indication of the nation’s commitment to tackling climate change.

Wang Haibin, a senior economist at Sinochem Energy, highlighted that one of the key issues in the global climate arena, including at COP29, is climate change funding. He noted that Trump’s return to office could shift the US approach, affecting not only its stance but also the willingness of other developed countries to contribute. Another commentator speculated that his return would diminish the US’ standing in climate negotiations at COP29 and further weaken the influence of the US negotiating team.

Trump’s expected revival of isolationist climate policies could deal a blow to global climate action, simultaneously presenting China with an opportunity for geopolitical triumph. Li Shuo, a China expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, observed: “The US has barely played a role. With Trump, it will soon exit the field.” Many commentaries have discussed China’s success in providing tangible solutions. Yang Lei, vice president of Peking University’s Energy Research Institute, remarked, “China’s approach contrasts sharply with the often-empty rhetoric of other nations. While some countries send bold signals, they fail to follow through. This is where China’s climate diplomacy stands apart—its actions speak louder than the hollow pledges of others.” Chinese commentators and internet users illustrate some of the examples of this leadership: China’s installation of wind and solar capacity, which now surpasses that of France, Germany, and the UK combined.

Additionally, China leads the production of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles—industries critical to making clean technology both accessible and affordable. These advances position China to play a decisive role in the global transition to renewable energy, with Chinese companies already expanding operations internationally. China’s climate financing efforts and South-South Cooperation on climate change further illustrate its commitment to not only its energy future but also the development of other countries.

Also read: Indo-Pacific, NATO, Russia to China — how the world is bracing for Trump 2.0

China seizes the opportunity for leadership

Wang Yuanfeng, director of the Center for Carbon Neutrality Science and Technology and Strategy at Beijing Jiaotong University, asserted that in global climate governance, China has firmly cemented its leadership. He advocated for China to lead the way in shaping global climate policies and warned against the fragmentation of international efforts. “The principle of multilateralism must be upheld,” he emphasised, adding that exclusive, fragmented groups only undermine collective progress.

A Weibo post argued that while the US has created a leadership vacuum, China is increasingly positioned to take on a leadership role. After the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement, China’s position in the global low-carbon industry strengthened. Its renewable energy sectors, such as solar and wind, have become more competitive, with reduced pressure from the US exit. The post explained that this has allowed China to expand its market, scale up production, and drive technological innovation. It has also accelerated China’s economic transformation, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable, high-quality development.

Liu Yuanling of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences aptly pointed out the resilience of China-US climate diplomacy, which is crucial for the stability of bilateral relations. Despite political tensions, even if Trump returns to office, the need for communication on climate action will be even more urgent. Liu argued that the climate crisis is undeniable and that China’s persuasion to engage with the US in climate action could exemplify the progressive leadership needed to confront it.

While a collective response is essential for effective climate action, for China, this goes beyond simply addressing the climate crisis—it represents a strategic opportunity to surpass the US as the dominant climate leader. Trump’s climate denialism has created a vacuum that China is primed to fill, positioning itself as the global leader in climate action. Power is no longer defined solely by military might; today, true leadership depends on a nation’s ability to confront non-traditional security threats. And no threat is more pressing than climate change. China recognises this and is ready to capitalise on the opportunity before it.

Sana Hashmi is fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.

(Edited by Humra Laeeq)