How A Donald Trump Victory In November 5 Election Could Impact US-India Ties

Last Updated:November 05, 2024, 09:21 IST

The US presidential polls are set to take place on Nov 5, with Vice President Kamala Harris going against the former US President

A potential second term for Donald Trump as US President could have significant consequences for India, even as key areas of defence and trade cooperation are likely to remain central to the relationship between the two strategic partners.

The US presidential polls are set to take place on November 5, with Vice President Kamala Harris going against the former US President. The 78-year-old Republican is aiming to make a comeback to the White House while Harris is looking to create history by becoming the first woman president of the US.

Some experts argue that America’s policy toward India will remain virtually unchanged regardless of who wins the US presidential election. However, others say that India-US ties under a potential Trump presidency would differ from a Harris administration. The trajectory of the ties would depend largely on how his administration navigates its ties with the Narendra Modi government on bilateral and global issues.

Trade and Defence

Trump’s first term saw a mixed approach toward trade, with an “America First” policy that led to tariffs and trade disputes with its neighbours and major trading partners globally. New Delhi could see continued pressure from the Trump administration on issues like trade deficits, market access, and intellectual property.

Earlier in September, Trump had described India as an “abuser” of tariffs during a town hall in Flint, Michigan. While speaking on the issue of trade, Trump remarked, “So when India, which is a very big abuser. These people are the sharpest. They’re not a little bit backward. You know the expression, they are at the top of their game and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is tough and China is the toughest of all.”

When it comes to defence cooperation, the US-India relationship saw significant growth during Trump’s first term. Defence collaboration deepened under agreements such as the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation (BECA). If Trump returns, his administration may persist in facilitating high-level defence deals, expanding joint military exercises, and strengthening India’s defence capabilities.

IT Sector And H-1B Visa

During Trump’s first term, India’s IT and services sector was frequently targeted over concerns about job outsourcing and visa policies. If Trump re-enters the White House, he may continue to push for restrictions on H-1B visas and other work visas, affecting the flow of skilled labour to the US. This could have a major impact on the large Indian diaspora in the US.

Restrictions on H-1B visas, green cards and family reunification could limit the opportunities for highly-skilled professionals wishing to work in the US. Contrary to his earlier stance, Trump, earlier in June, had said that students graduating from US colleges should get a green card to stay in the country. During the All-In podcast hosted by Silicon Valley tech investors, angel investor Jason Calacanis told Trump that the US needs to be able to legally retain more high-skilled workers.

“Can you please promise us you will give us more ability to import the best and brightest around the world to America?” Calacanis said. “I do promise,” Trump said. “But I happen to agree, otherwise I wouldn’t promise… You graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges too.”

Modi-Trump Bonhomie

Trump recently described PM Modi as one of the ‘nicest guys’ he had met. During the popular Flagrant Podcast, Trump told comedians Andrew Schulz and Akaash Singh that, “Modi… India, he’s a friend of mine, he’s great. Before him, they were replacing them every year, (very) unstable. On the outside, he looks like your father, he’s the nicest guy, but he’s a total killer.” He also recalled sharing the stage with PM Modi during 2019’s Howdy Modi event in Houston, Texas and said it was beautiful to see a packed stadium cheering for Narendra Modi.

In the past, Modi and Trump enjoyed a warm relationship, even sharing a stage in 2020 at Ahmedabad’s Narendra Modi Stadium for the Namaste Trump event. This personal bond could significantly influence the trajectory of India-US ties during a potential Trump 2.0 presidency. Last week, Trump promised to strengthen US-India ties under his “good friend” Modi if he is elected in the upcoming polls. “We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi,” he said in a social media post to highlight the need to protect Hindus in Bangladesh.

Location :

Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)