October 9, 2024
Is it time to invest in China? Two pros share their views
Chinese markets are back in the spotlight after a rough start to the week. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index skyrocketed over 10% when it opened Tuesday amid expectations of further measures to boost the economy after the seven-day Golden Week break . The rally cooled off, however, after China’s National Development and Reform Commission held off on announcing any new major stimulus plans, underwhelming investors. The CSI 300 ended Tuesday with a gain of 5.93% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed down 9.4%. Ahead of the holiday, China’s government unveiled a slew of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, lower cash reserve requirements at banks, looser property purchase rules and liquidity support for stock markets. Markets cheered the news and Wall Street strategists adopted a more positive outlook on China which had, until recently, been considered a contrarian trade. As investors consider whether — and how — to invest in China, two experts share their views on the market right now. From ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’ For Jingwei Chen, chief investment strategist at wealth manager Wrise Private Singapore, the first signs of stimulus were enough to turn bullish on China. “We have revised our outlook [on the country] given the scope of these interventions to reflect our renewed confidence in the region’s recovery potential,” he told CNBC Pro. The wealth manager — whose firm serves ultra-high-net-worth individuals across Asia, the Middle East and Europe — was previously neutral on China. “We believe the scale and focus of these measures, particularly the targeted liquidity injection, address the critical issue of insufficient domestic capital flows into China’s stock market. We expect a shift towards greater market participation, which should bolster equity performance,” he said. While Chen is optimistic about the future, he said he is selective in his investment approach and is seeking “opportunities in industry leaders with strong fundamentals and robust capital return strategies particularly in the electric vehicles and internet sectors.” Companies in these sectors, he explained, have shown upward earnings revisions and have the ability to outperform in the short term. His top stock picks include automaker BYD and tech giant Tencent Holdings . Other sectors Chen likes include utilities, energy, telecommunications and financials. All of these have “higher earnings visibility and defensive dividend yields,” and stand to gain from the lower interest rate environment and ongoing reforms to state-owned enterprises, he added. ‘China is no longer cheap’ Lorraine Tan, director of Asia’s equity research at Morningstar, is more cautious looking ahead. Chinese stocks have often been described as “cheap” over the past year, but Tan said markets in Hong Kong and China have “bounced to share price levels that no longer present attractive upside versus risk of disappointment.” “At this point in time, China markets are no longer cheap. Over the past 2 weeks, our China coverage universe has moved from a discount of 21% to our fair value estimate to just 4% now. Because China had been underweight by most, the impact of the buying has led to huge price moves given limited selling,” Tan wrote in an Oct. 8 note. “We think there are still buying opportunities, but we would be highly selective in our choices as the risk/reward ratio has risen,” Tan added. She is betting on selective companies in sectors like consumer cyclicals, defensives and communication services which still have “more attractive discounts.” Stocks on her radar include “higher quality, moaty names,” such as fast-food restaurant chain Yum China Holdings and property developer China Resources Land . An economic moat refers to a company’s competitive advantage. — CNBC’s Lim Hui Jie contributed to this report.
